Memphis to Phoenix Turbulence Forecast

MEM → PHX · 1,261 miles · ~3h 1m

What to Expect

The Memphis to Phoenix route is a true cross-section of America, and the turbulence you might experience mirrors that. Departing from Memphis, you'll initially cross the Mississippi Valley, the Southeast Interior, and the Ozark Plateau, where convective turbulence caused by rising warm air can create some chop, especially in warmer months. Then comes Tornado Alley, known for severe convective turbulence; pilots are very familiar with this and avoid it. As you approach Phoenix, you'll fly over the Southern Rockies, where mountain wave turbulence, caused by wind flowing over the mountains, might be felt. Finally, expect some thermal turbulence over the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts, another form of convective bumpiness. All of these are well-understood weather phenomena, and pilots are trained to navigate them safely and effectively.

The Memphis to Phoenix route passes over the Southern Rockies in New Mexico and southern Colorado. While somewhat lower than the peaks to the north, these mountains still produce notable mountain wave turbulence, particularly when strong southwesterly winds aloft align perpendicular to the ridgeline.

Turbulence Factors on This Route

• Convective Turbulence: The Mississippi Valley is a breeding ground for squall lines and mesoscale convective systems that produce widespread turbulence.
• Mountain Wave Turbulence: The Southern Rockies produce lee waves when southwesterly upper-level winds flow across the terrain.
• Thermal Turbulence: Extreme desert heating generates strong thermal updrafts that cause low-to-mid-level turbulence, especially in summer afternoons.

When Is This Route Bumpiest?

For the smoothest ride on this route, aim for fall, late fall, or winter. The air is generally more stable during these months, reducing the likelihood of convective turbulence and mountain wave effects. Spring, early summer, and summer tend to be the bumpiest. These warmer months bring increased convective activity across the Mississippi Valley, the Southeast Interior, the Ozark Plateau, and Tornado Alley, leading to more frequent and potentially stronger turbulence. In late winter, the risk of mountain wave turbulence over the Rockies increases.

Tips for This Flight

The best way to minimize turbulence on your Memphis to Phoenix flight is to book a morning flight. The air tends to be calmer earlier in the day before the ground heats up and creates thermal updrafts. Any turbulence you do encounter on this route will likely feel like driving on a road with potholes or small speed bumps, normal and manageable. For extra comfort, choose a seat over the wing of the aircraft, where movement is typically less pronounced, and remember to stay well-hydrated; deep, steady breaths can also help keep you relaxed.

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Forecasts based on NOAA HRRR and GFS atmospheric model data.