Memphis to Denver Turbulence Forecast

MEM → DEN · 871 miles · ~2h 15m

What to Expect

The Memphis to Denver flight can be a bit of a mixed bag turbulence-wise, as you'll be crossing several distinct geographic areas known for their unique weather patterns. Departing from Memphis, you'll initially be over the Mississippi Valley and the Southeast Interior, then crossing the Ozark Plateau, all areas prone to convective turbulence, especially during warmer months. This type of turbulence is caused by rising warm air, similar to what creates thunderstorms, and it can cause some moderate chop. Next, you'll head into Tornado Alley, which can experience severe convective turbulence, especially in spring. As you move further northwest over the Great Plains, you might encounter clear-air turbulence (CAT), which is often unexpected but usually not severe. Finally, as you approach Denver, you'll fly near the Front Range, where mountain wave turbulence can occur, caused by wind flowing over the mountains. Experienced pilots are prepared for these effects and use onboard radar, as well as reports from other pilots, to avoid the worst of it, so the goal is to navigate around bumps, not through them.

Flights between Memphis and Denver pass along the Front Range, where the abrupt rise of the Colorado Rockies generates some of the strongest mountain wave turbulence in the continental U.S. Downdrafts east of the ridgeline can be intense, and rotor turbulence near the surface sometimes extends to cruising altitude during high-wind events.

Turbulence Factors on This Route

• Convective Turbulence: The Mississippi Valley is a breeding ground for squall lines and mesoscale convective systems that produce widespread turbulence.
• Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT): The jet stream frequently meanders over the Great Plains, producing wind shear and clear-air turbulence at cruising altitudes.
• Mountain Wave Turbulence: Strong westerly winds over the Front Range create oscillating waves that can produce sustained moderate turbulence at jet cruise levels.

When Is This Route Bumpiest?

The fall, late fall, summer, and early fall months generally offer the smoothest flights on this route. The weather patterns that create convective turbulence and severe convective turbulence are less active during these times. Spring and early summer tend to be the bumpiest, especially near Tornado Alley, due to increased storm activity. Winter and early spring can also be bumpy, thanks to the potential for mountain wave turbulence as air flows over the Front Range, and pockets of CAT over the Plains. This isn't to say that other seasons are immune to turbulence, but these periods tend to be less active, overall.

Tips for This Flight

If possible, book your flight for the morning, as turbulence tends to be less common earlier in the day. Any turbulence you experience on this route will probably feel like driving on a road with potholes, or perhaps like a boat gently rocking on the water. To help yourself stay calm, choose a seat over the wing, which is the most stable part of the plane, and focus on taking slow, deep breaths. Remember, the pilots are highly trained to handle all kinds of turbulence, and the aircraft are built to withstand much more than you'll ever experience.

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Forecasts based on NOAA HRRR and GFS atmospheric model data.