Chicago O'Hare to Phoenix Turbulence Forecast

ORD → PHX · 1,437 miles · ~3h 22m

What to Expect

Chicago to Phoenix is a heavily traveled route, but the weather can vary quite a bit along the way. Departing from Chicago, you might encounter some Lake-Effect Turbulence as you cross the Great Lakes, especially if the lake water is warmer than the air above it. As you head west, crossing the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys, you could experience Frontal Turbulence associated with weather fronts or Convective Turbulence from developing thunderstorms. Further west, over Tornado Alley and the Great Plains, there's a possibility of encountering Severe Convective Turbulence or Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT). Once you hit the Southern Rockies, Mountain Wave Turbulence becomes a possibility. Finally, as you approach Phoenix, you might feel some Thermal Turbulence, created by rising warm air over the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts. Pilots are well-versed in navigating these common atmospheric conditions, using onboard radar and reports from other aircraft to find the smoothest path possible.

The Chicago O'Hare to Phoenix route passes over the Southern Rockies in New Mexico and southern Colorado. While somewhat lower than the peaks to the north, these mountains still produce notable mountain wave turbulence, particularly when strong southwesterly winds aloft align perpendicular to the ridgeline.

Turbulence Factors on This Route

• Lake-Effect Turbulence: The Great Lakes produce lake-effect convection and low-level wind shear from land-water temperature contrasts.
• Frontal Turbulence: The Ohio Valley is a preferred storm track where frontal boundaries and embedded convection create turbulence year-round.
• Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT): The jet stream frequently meanders over the Great Plains, producing wind shear and clear-air turbulence at cruising altitudes.
• Mountain Wave Turbulence: The Southern Rockies produce lee waves when southwesterly upper-level winds flow across the terrain.

When Is This Route Bumpiest?

For the smoothest possible ride on this route, aim for flights in the summer, early fall, or fall; the air is generally more stable then. Winter can be a mixed bag; sometimes it's smooth, other times you might encounter more turbulence. Late fall, early winter, winter, spring, early summer, early spring, late winter, and summer tend to be bumpier due to increased frontal activity, convective storms, and temperature differences that create instability over the lakes, plains, and mountains.

Tips for This Flight

Choosing a morning flight can often lead to a smoother experience, as the atmosphere tends to be more settled early in the day. Any turbulence you do encounter on this route is most likely to feel like driving on a slightly bumpy road, or perhaps a few stronger jolts, but remember that pilots are trained to handle these conditions safely. To enhance your comfort, consider choosing a seat over the wing; it's generally the most stable part of the aircraft. Focus on your breathing; slow, deep breaths can help calm your nerves and remind you that you're in capable hands.

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Forecasts based on NOAA HRRR and GFS atmospheric model data.