Raleigh-Durham to Phoenix Turbulence Forecast

RDU → PHX · 1,887 miles · ~4h 16m

What to Expect

The Raleigh-Durham to Phoenix route, while direct, crosses a wide variety of geographic features, each with its own potential for turbulence. Expect some bumps early on as you fly over the Southern Appalachians, where mechanical turbulence from the mountains can cause a bit of chop. As you continue west, you'll encounter the Southeast Interior, Ohio Valley, Mississippi Valley, and Ozark Plateau, all of which can experience convective turbulence, especially in warmer months. Then comes a stretch over Tornado Alley, which can bring severe convective turbulence; pilots are very aware of these patterns. The Great Plains may present clear-air turbulence (CAT) at higher altitudes. Finally, as you approach Phoenix, the Southern Rockies can generate mountain wave turbulence, and the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts might create thermal turbulence. Pilots are skilled at navigating these well-understood weather patterns.

The Raleigh-Durham to Phoenix route passes over the Southern Rockies in New Mexico and southern Colorado. While somewhat lower than the peaks to the north, these mountains still produce notable mountain wave turbulence, particularly when strong southwesterly winds aloft align perpendicular to the ridgeline.

Turbulence Factors on This Route

• Mechanical Turbulence: The Southern Appalachians produce terrain-induced chop, especially during strong wind events and summer convection over the ridgeline.
• Convective Turbulence: The warm, humid Southeast interior supports frequent thunderstorm development, particularly during afternoon hours.
• Frontal Turbulence: The Ohio Valley is a preferred storm track where frontal boundaries and embedded convection create turbulence year-round.
• Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT): The jet stream frequently meanders over the Great Plains, producing wind shear and clear-air turbulence at cruising altitudes.

When Is This Route Bumpiest?

For the smoothest ride, aim to fly this route in the fall, especially late fall and early fall, when the air is generally more stable across the country. Winter, early spring, early summer, and late winter tend to be bumpier due to increased frontal activity over the Ohio Valley and convective turbulence over the Southeast Interior, Mississippi Valley, and Ozark Plateau. Summer also sees greater thermal and convective activity in the deserts and plains, contributing to potential turbulence.

Tips for This Flight

Opt for a morning flight, if possible, as daytime heating often increases thermal turbulence, especially over the deserts. The turbulence on this route can range from feeling like driving on a slightly bumpy road to a more noticeable shaking, similar to being in a car wash. Choose a seat over the wing for a slightly more stable experience, and remember to stay hydrated, as dry air can heighten anxiety. Focus on slow, deep breaths to help calm your nerves, knowing that your pilots are expertly trained to handle these conditions.

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Forecasts based on NOAA HRRR and GFS atmospheric model data.