Phoenix to St. Louis Turbulence Forecast

PHX → STL · 1,259 miles · ~3h 1m

What to Expect

The Phoenix to St. Louis flight, heading northeast for about three hours, traverses a diverse landscape, and this variety means a higher chance of encountering different kinds of turbulence. Initially, you'll be over the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts, where thermal turbulence, caused by rising warm air, is common, especially during the day. As you move into the Southern Rockies, expect possible mountain wave turbulence, which happens when air flows over the mountains, creating waves. Then, across the Great Plains, there's a chance of clear-air turbulence (CAT), which can occur even in seemingly clear skies. Further along, as you approach Tornado Alley and the Mississippi Valley, convective turbulence becomes possible, caused by thunderstorms. These are all well-known weather patterns. Pilots are trained to anticipate and navigate them, adjusting altitude or course to ensure a safe and as comfortable a flight as possible.

The Phoenix to St. Louis route passes over the Southern Rockies in New Mexico and southern Colorado. While somewhat lower than the peaks to the north, these mountains still produce notable mountain wave turbulence, particularly when strong southwesterly winds aloft align perpendicular to the ridgeline.

Turbulence Factors on This Route

• Thermal Turbulence: Extreme desert heating generates strong thermal updrafts that cause low-to-mid-level turbulence, especially in summer afternoons.
• Mountain Wave Turbulence: The Southern Rockies produce lee waves when southwesterly upper-level winds flow across the terrain.
• Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT): The jet stream frequently meanders over the Great Plains, producing wind shear and clear-air turbulence at cruising altitudes.
• Severe Convective Turbulence: Tornado Alley supercells produce some of the most intense convective turbulence in North American aviation.

When Is This Route Bumpiest?

For the smoothest possible flight, aim for fall or winter. During these seasons, thermal activity over the deserts is reduced, and the likelihood of strong thunderstorms is lower. Summer tends to be the bumpiest, with increased thermal turbulence over the deserts and a higher chance of convective turbulence from thunderstorms in Tornado Alley and the Mississippi Valley. Late winter, spring, early spring, and early summer can also be turbulent because of unstable air masses and increased storm activity along the route.

Tips for This Flight

If you're concerned about turbulence, booking an early morning flight can sometimes help you avoid the worst of the thermal activity over the desert, and convective turbulence later in the day. Any turbulence you experience is most likely going to feel like driving on a slightly bumpy road or the sensation of a quick dip on a rollercoaster. Choosing a seat over the wing is often a bit more stable. Staying well-hydrated and practicing deep, slow breathing can also help you feel more relaxed throughout the flight. Remember, the pilots are skilled at managing these conditions, and your safety is always their top priority.

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Forecasts based on NOAA HRRR and GFS atmospheric model data.