Phoenix to Chicago O'Hare Turbulence Forecast

PHX → ORD · 1,437 miles · ~3h 22m

What to Expect

Phoenix to Chicago is a pretty diverse flight, turbulence-wise, because you're crossing so much varied terrain. Right after takeoff, expect some potential bumps from thermal turbulence as you fly over the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts, where the hot ground heats the air. As you approach the Southern Rockies, there could be mountain wave turbulence, which is like hitting wakes in a boat. Once you're over the Great Plains, be prepared for clear-air turbulence (CAT), which can be unexpected but is usually mild. Depending on the time of year, Tornado Alley in the plains could bring severe convective turbulence. Closer to Chicago, you might encounter lake-effect turbulence near the Great Lakes. Also, convective turbulence is possible over the Mississippi Valley, and frontal turbulence over the Ohio Valley. Pilots are trained to handle all of these conditions, and they monitor weather patterns constantly to ensure a safe and comfortable flight.

The Phoenix to Chicago O'Hare route passes over the Southern Rockies in New Mexico and southern Colorado. While somewhat lower than the peaks to the north, these mountains still produce notable mountain wave turbulence, particularly when strong southwesterly winds aloft align perpendicular to the ridgeline.

Turbulence Factors on This Route

• Thermal Turbulence: Extreme desert heating generates strong thermal updrafts that cause low-to-mid-level turbulence, especially in summer afternoons.
• Mountain Wave Turbulence: The Southern Rockies produce lee waves when southwesterly upper-level winds flow across the terrain.
• Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT): The jet stream frequently meanders over the Great Plains, producing wind shear and clear-air turbulence at cruising altitudes.
• Severe Convective Turbulence: Tornado Alley supercells produce some of the most intense convective turbulence in North American aviation.

When Is This Route Bumpiest?

For the smoothest ride, winter and early fall are generally your best bets; the air is more stable, and there's less convective activity. Summer can be bumpier due to increased thermal activity over the deserts and convective storms in Tornado Alley. Late winter, spring, early spring, early summer, late fall, and early winter are often the bumpiest times; this is when you're more likely to encounter mountain wave turbulence as well as significant weather patterns crossing the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.

Tips for This Flight

If possible, try booking a morning flight; the air is generally calmer before it heats up, lessening the thermal turbulence over the deserts. Any turbulence you experience on this route is most likely to feel like driving over a slightly bumpy road, a sensation that's more common than severe. For extra comfort, choose a seat over the wing; this area experiences less motion. Remember to stay hydrated, as this can help with any anxiety or discomfort, and focus on slow, deep breaths to stay relaxed. Know that the pilots are always working to ensure your safety and comfort.

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Forecasts based on NOAA HRRR and GFS atmospheric model data.