Phoenix to Orlando Turbulence Forecast

PHX → MCO · 1,845 miles · ~4h 11m

What to Expect

The Phoenix to Orlando route is a journey across varied landscapes, and turbulence is a common, well-understood aspect of that trip. Departing Phoenix, you'll first cross the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts, where thermal turbulence, caused by rising warm air, can create some initial bumps. As you continue east, you'll encounter the Southern Rockies, where mountain wave turbulence can occur as wind flows over the peaks. Central plains, also known as Tornado Alley, present the possibility of severe convective turbulence, especially during storm season. Later, you'll fly over the Mississippi Valley and the Gulf Coast, where convective turbulence from afternoon thunderstorms is possible. Finally, as you approach Orlando, you'll cross the Southeast Interior, which can also experience convective turbulence. Pilots are very familiar with these patterns and use onboard radar, pilot reports, and forecasts to navigate carefully.

The Phoenix to Orlando route passes over the Southern Rockies in New Mexico and southern Colorado. While somewhat lower than the peaks to the north, these mountains still produce notable mountain wave turbulence, particularly when strong southwesterly winds aloft align perpendicular to the ridgeline.

Turbulence Factors on This Route

• Thermal Turbulence: Extreme desert heating generates strong thermal updrafts that cause low-to-mid-level turbulence, especially in summer afternoons.
• Mountain Wave Turbulence: The Southern Rockies produce lee waves when southwesterly upper-level winds flow across the terrain.
• Severe Convective Turbulence: Tornado Alley supercells produce some of the most intense convective turbulence in North American aviation.

When Is This Route Bumpiest?

The smoothest flights between Phoenix and Orlando are usually in the winter and fall. The air is generally more stable during these months, reducing the likelihood of significant turbulence. Summer, late winter, spring, and early summer tend to be bumpier. This is because the increased heat creates more thermal activity over the deserts and plains, and the higher humidity contributes to thunderstorm formation over the Mississippi Valley, Gulf Coast, and Southeast Interior. This activity can lead to more frequent and intense convective turbulence, so keep that in mind when booking.

Tips for This Flight

If you're anxious about turbulence, consider booking a morning flight. The air is often calmer before the day heats up, reducing the chance of thermal or convective activity. Any turbulence you do encounter on this route will likely feel like driving over a bumpy road or a mild roller coaster. It's rarely as dramatic as it feels. To help stay calm, choose a seat over the wing, where movement is minimized, and focus on deep, slow breathing. Remember, the pilots are highly trained to handle these conditions, and the aircraft is designed to withstand much more than you'll experience.

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Forecasts based on NOAA HRRR and GFS atmospheric model data.