Phoenix to New Orleans Turbulence Forecast

PHX → MSY · 1,298 miles · ~3h 6m

What to Expect

Your Phoenix to New Orleans flight is a roughly east-bound trip of about three hours, six minutes that crosses a few different geographic regions known for turbulence. Right after takeoff, you'll be over the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts, which often experience thermal turbulence, especially during the day as the hot ground heats the air above it. As you continue east, you'll cross the Southern Rockies, which can cause mountain wave turbulence. Further along, you will enter an area known as Tornado Alley, where severe convective turbulence can occur, especially during storm season. Finally, as you approach New Orleans, you'll be flying over the Gulf Coast and Mississippi Valley, both of which are prone to convective turbulence due to warm, moist air rising. It’s worth remembering that pilots are very familiar with these patterns and actively monitor and navigate around them.

The Phoenix to New Orleans route passes over the Southern Rockies in New Mexico and southern Colorado. While somewhat lower than the peaks to the north, these mountains still produce notable mountain wave turbulence, particularly when strong southwesterly winds aloft align perpendicular to the ridgeline.

Turbulence Factors on This Route

• Thermal Turbulence: Extreme desert heating generates strong thermal updrafts that cause low-to-mid-level turbulence, especially in summer afternoons.
• Mountain Wave Turbulence: The Southern Rockies produce lee waves when southwesterly upper-level winds flow across the terrain.
• Severe Convective Turbulence: Tornado Alley supercells produce some of the most intense convective turbulence in North American aviation.

When Is This Route Bumpiest?

The winter months, followed by fall, tend to offer the smoothest rides on this route. Summer, and the transition from late winter through early summer, are generally the bumpiest times to fly this route. This is primarily due to increased thermal activity over the deserts and the greater likelihood of thunderstorms and convective activity in Tornado Alley, the Gulf Coast, and the Mississippi Valley. The temperature differences and unstable air create the conditions for more frequent and potentially stronger turbulence.

Tips for This Flight

If possible, book a morning flight, as the air tends to be calmer before the day heats up and storms develop. Any turbulence you encounter on this route is most likely to feel like driving over a bumpy road or a series of gentle jolts. Choose a seat over the wing, as it offers a bit more stability, and stay well-hydrated, as dehydration can amplify feelings of anxiety. Remember that the crew is there to support you, and turbulence is a normal part of flying. You've got this.

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Forecasts based on NOAA HRRR and GFS atmospheric model data.