Phoenix to Nashville Turbulence Forecast

PHX → BNA · 1,445 miles · ~3h 23m

What to Expect

The Phoenix to Nashville route can be a bit of a mixed bag, turbulence-wise, due to the diverse terrain it crosses. Immediately after leaving Phoenix, you'll be crossing the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts, which are prone to thermal turbulence, caused by rising warm air. As you continue east, you'll encounter the Southern Rockies, where mountain wave turbulence can occur as wind flows over the peaks. The flight path then cuts across the Great Plains, an area known for clear-air turbulence, or CAT, which is often unexpected but usually not severe. You will also be flying through Tornado Alley, so the possibility of encountering severe convective turbulence is present. Moving on, the Ozark Plateau and Mississippi Valley are prone to convective turbulence, caused by thunderstorms and unstable air masses. Finally, as you approach Nashville, your flight path will pass over the Ohio Valley, which is subject to frontal turbulence when different air masses collide. Remember, pilots are constantly monitoring weather conditions and adjusting altitude or course to find the smoothest ride possible.

The Phoenix to Nashville route passes over the Southern Rockies in New Mexico and southern Colorado. While somewhat lower than the peaks to the north, these mountains still produce notable mountain wave turbulence, particularly when strong southwesterly winds aloft align perpendicular to the ridgeline.

Turbulence Factors on This Route

• Thermal Turbulence: Extreme desert heating generates strong thermal updrafts that cause low-to-mid-level turbulence, especially in summer afternoons.
• Mountain Wave Turbulence: The Southern Rockies produce lee waves when southwesterly upper-level winds flow across the terrain.
• Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT): The jet stream frequently meanders over the Great Plains, producing wind shear and clear-air turbulence at cruising altitudes.
• Severe Convective Turbulence: Tornado Alley supercells produce some of the most intense convective turbulence in North American aviation.

When Is This Route Bumpiest?

For the calmest flight, aim for early fall or winter. The air is generally more stable during these times, reducing the likelihood of thermal and convective turbulence. Summer tends to be bumpier, especially over the desert and plains, due to increased thermal activity and thunderstorm development. Late winter, spring, early spring, and early summer can also bring more turbulence because of stronger storm systems moving across Tornado Alley and the Ozarks. Pilots always do their best to avoid any rough air, but weather patterns can cause some unavoidable turbulence at certain times of the year.

Tips for This Flight

If you're anxious about turbulence, try booking a morning flight; the air is often calmer before the day heats up. Any bumps you might encounter on this route are likely to feel like driving quickly down a slightly bumpy dirt road, not usually anything alarming. To feel more at ease, choose a seat over the wing; this area of the plane experiences less motion. Staying hydrated and practicing deep, slow breaths can also help you relax, and remember that the pilots and crew are highly trained to handle all weather conditions.

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Forecasts based on NOAA HRRR and GFS atmospheric model data.