Phoenix to Minneapolis Turbulence Forecast

PHX → MSP · 1,275 miles · ~3h 3m

What to Expect

The Phoenix to Minneapolis route can be a bit bumpy, but also very manageable. Right after takeoff, you might encounter some thermal turbulence rising off the hot Mojave and Sonoran Deserts, especially in the afternoon. As you track northeast, you will cross the Southern, Central, and Front Range Rockies, where mountain wave turbulence is common as air flows over the peaks, creating choppy conditions. Once you're over the Great Plains and Upper Midwest, you could experience clear-air turbulence, or CAT, which is caused by shifting air currents at higher altitudes. Pilots are well-versed in navigating these common weather patterns; they use radar, pilot reports, and forecasts to choose the smoothest possible flight path. They're always prepared to adjust course or altitude slightly to find smoother air, ensuring a safe and comfortable journey.

The Phoenix to Minneapolis route passes over the Southern Rockies in New Mexico and southern Colorado. While somewhat lower than the peaks to the north, these mountains still produce notable mountain wave turbulence, particularly when strong southwesterly winds aloft align perpendicular to the ridgeline.

Turbulence Factors on This Route

• Thermal Turbulence: Extreme desert heating generates strong thermal updrafts that cause low-to-mid-level turbulence, especially in summer afternoons.
• Mountain Wave Turbulence: The Southern Rockies produce lee waves when southwesterly upper-level winds flow across the terrain.
• Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT): The jet stream frequently meanders over the Great Plains, producing wind shear and clear-air turbulence at cruising altitudes.

When Is This Route Bumpiest?

For the smoothest flight, winter and early fall are generally your best bets. The air is typically more stable during these times, reducing the likelihood of thermal or mountain wave turbulence. Summer, late winter, spring, winter, and early spring can be bumpier. Warmer temperatures create more thermal activity, and the jet stream over the Rockies is often stronger, leading to increased mountain wave turbulence. The clash of warm and cold air masses during spring also contributes to more frequent clear-air turbulence over the plains and Midwest.

Tips for This Flight

If you're concerned about turbulence, try to book a morning flight, when the air is often calmer. Any bumps you do encounter on this route will likely feel like driving over a series of small potholes in the road. Choosing a seat over the wing, which is closer to the plane's center of gravity, can minimize the sensation of movement. Remember to stay hydrated by drinking plenty of water before and during your flight, as dehydration can heighten anxiety. Focus on slow, deep breaths, knowing that the pilots are expertly managing the flight every step of the way.

Get Your Forecast

Related Routes

See all routes from Phoenix or to Minneapolis.

More from Phoenix

More to Minneapolis

Forecasts based on NOAA HRRR and GFS atmospheric model data.