Phoenix to Milwaukee Turbulence Forecast

PHX → MKE · 1,458 miles · ~3h 25m

What to Expect

Your Phoenix to Milwaukee flight, heading northeast over 1458 miles, will likely encounter a few different types of turbulence, all of which pilots are prepared for. Initially, you'll be over the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts, where thermal turbulence, caused by rising warm air, is common. As you proceed, you'll cross the Southern Rockies and Front Range, where mountain wave turbulence can occur as wind flows over the mountains. Further along, over the Great Plains, you might experience clear-air turbulence (CAT), which is often unexpected but usually mild. Depending on the time of year, especially spring, you could pass through Tornado Alley, where severe convective turbulence is possible, though pilots actively avoid these areas. Near the end of your journey, approaching Milwaukee, you might feel some lake-effect turbulence over the Great Lakes, or convective turbulence above the Mississippi Valley, due to the interaction of air masses. Finally, you may experience clear-air turbulence over the Upper Midwest. Each of these is a known weather pattern for pilots on this route.

The Phoenix to Milwaukee route passes over the Southern Rockies in New Mexico and southern Colorado. While somewhat lower than the peaks to the north, these mountains still produce notable mountain wave turbulence, particularly when strong southwesterly winds aloft align perpendicular to the ridgeline.

Turbulence Factors on This Route

• Thermal Turbulence: Extreme desert heating generates strong thermal updrafts that cause low-to-mid-level turbulence, especially in summer afternoons.
• Mountain Wave Turbulence: The Southern Rockies produce lee waves when southwesterly upper-level winds flow across the terrain.
• Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT): The jet stream frequently meanders over the Great Plains, producing wind shear and clear-air turbulence at cruising altitudes.
• Severe Convective Turbulence: Tornado Alley supercells produce some of the most intense convective turbulence in North American aviation.

When Is This Route Bumpiest?

For the smoothest possible flight, aim for early fall, winter, or summer. The air is generally more stable then. Summer is often calmer than other times of year, despite the desert heat, because storm systems are less vigorous. The bumpiest times tend to be spring, early spring, late winter, early summer, late fall, and early winter, when temperature differences and storm fronts are more pronounced. Springtime brings increased convective activity, especially in Tornado Alley, and more mountain wave turbulence as winds pick up around the Rockies. Likewise, the clash of warm and cold air masses in late fall and early winter can generate more turbulence over the Plains and Midwest.

Tips for This Flight

Choosing a morning flight is often your best bet for a smoother ride, as the atmosphere tends to be more stable early in the day. Any turbulence you do experience on this route will likely feel like driving quickly over a road with many small potholes, a sensation that's more unsettling than dangerous. For extra comfort, select a seat over the wing, as these tend to experience less motion, and be sure to stay well-hydrated throughout the flight. Remember that the flight crew is highly trained to handle these conditions, and you'll be in good hands.

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Forecasts based on NOAA HRRR and GFS atmospheric model data.