Phoenix to Memphis Turbulence Forecast

PHX → MEM · 1,261 miles · ~3h 1m

What to Expect

Your flight from Phoenix to Memphis crosses a wide variety of terrain, each with its own potential for turbulence. Departing Phoenix, you'll encounter the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts. The dry, hot air here often leads to what's called thermal turbulence, which feels like short, light bumps. As you continue east, you'll cross the Southern Rockies, where mountain wave turbulence can occur as air flows over the peaks; this might feel like moderate, rhythmic jolts. Further along, you'll enter Tornado Alley and then the Ozark Plateau, both regions prone to severe convective turbulence during certain times of the year. This is caused by rapidly rising warm air; it can be more intense but is also well-forecasted by meteorologists. Finally, your descent into Memphis takes you through the Mississippi Valley and the Southeast Interior, also subject to convective turbulence. Pilots are trained to anticipate and navigate these conditions, often adjusting altitude to find smoother air.

The Phoenix to Memphis route passes over the Southern Rockies in New Mexico and southern Colorado. While somewhat lower than the peaks to the north, these mountains still produce notable mountain wave turbulence, particularly when strong southwesterly winds aloft align perpendicular to the ridgeline.

Turbulence Factors on This Route

• Thermal Turbulence: Extreme desert heating generates strong thermal updrafts that cause low-to-mid-level turbulence, especially in summer afternoons.
• Mountain Wave Turbulence: The Southern Rockies produce lee waves when southwesterly upper-level winds flow across the terrain.
• Severe Convective Turbulence: Tornado Alley supercells produce some of the most intense convective turbulence in North American aviation.

When Is This Route Bumpiest?

For the smoothest possible flight, winter is generally your best bet, followed by fall. The desert air is more stable and mountain wave turbulence is less frequent. Also, winter is least likely to have convective turbulence. Summer, late winter, spring, and early summer tend to be bumpier. The combination of desert heat, storm systems moving across the Rockies, and convective activity in the Mississippi Valley increases the likelihood of turbulence. However, even in these seasons, turbulence is often isolated and avoidable.

Tips for This Flight

If you're concerned about bumps, booking a morning flight can sometimes be beneficial, as the air tends to be calmer before the day heats up, especially over the desert. Any turbulence you encounter on this route will likely feel like driving quickly over a road with small potholes, or perhaps a few stronger jolts like hitting a larger bump. Request a seat over the wing, as this area experiences less motion. Remember to stay hydrated and practice deep, slow breathing to help manage any anxiety, knowing that the pilots are expertly managing the flight.

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Forecasts based on NOAA HRRR and GFS atmospheric model data.