Phoenix to Detroit Turbulence Forecast

PHX → DTW · 1,667 miles · ~3h 50m

What to Expect

The Phoenix to Detroit flight is a journey across a diverse landscape, and this means encountering different types of turbulence. Shortly after takeoff, you'll cross the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts, where thermal turbulence, caused by rising warm air, can create some initial bumps. As you continue northeast, you'll fly over the Southern Rockies, where mountain wave turbulence might be felt as the wind flows over the peaks. Over the Great Plains, expect the possibility of clear-air turbulence (CAT), which can occur even in seemingly clear skies. Further along, you'll enter Tornado Alley, where severe convective turbulence is possible, particularly during storm season. Crossing the Mississippi Valley and approaching the Great Lakes, convective turbulence might occur. Finally, closer to Detroit, you might experience lake-effect turbulence or frontal turbulence as weather systems interact in the Ohio Valley. All of these are well-understood weather phenomena that pilots are trained to handle.

The Phoenix to Detroit route passes over the Southern Rockies in New Mexico and southern Colorado. While somewhat lower than the peaks to the north, these mountains still produce notable mountain wave turbulence, particularly when strong southwesterly winds aloft align perpendicular to the ridgeline.

Turbulence Factors on This Route

• Thermal Turbulence: Extreme desert heating generates strong thermal updrafts that cause low-to-mid-level turbulence, especially in summer afternoons.
• Mountain Wave Turbulence: The Southern Rockies produce lee waves when southwesterly upper-level winds flow across the terrain.
• Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT): The jet stream frequently meanders over the Great Plains, producing wind shear and clear-air turbulence at cruising altitudes.
• Severe Convective Turbulence: Tornado Alley supercells produce some of the most intense convective turbulence in North American aviation.

When Is This Route Bumpiest?

The smoothest time to fly this route is generally in the winter and fall, particularly early fall, when the weather patterns tend to be more stable. Summer, and early summer, can be bumpier due to increased thermal activity over the deserts and the risk of convective storms across Tornado Alley and the Mississippi Valley. Late winter, spring, and early spring can also be turbulent, thanks to the interaction of cold and warm air masses causing frontal turbulence in the Ohio Valley and mountain wave turbulence in the Rockies. Late fall and early winter can also be bumpier.

Tips for This Flight

For the calmest flight, consider booking a morning flight, as the atmosphere tends to be more stable earlier in the day. Any turbulence you encounter on this route will likely feel like driving on a slightly bumpy road or a boat gently rocking on water. If you’re concerned about turbulence, choose a seat over the wing, where the ride is typically less noticeable. Stay well-hydrated before and during your flight, and remember to focus on deep, steady breathing; this can help calm your nerves. Remember that turbulence is a normal part of flying, and the crew is always there to ensure your safety and comfort.

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Forecasts based on NOAA HRRR and GFS atmospheric model data.