Phoenix to Chicago Midway Turbulence Forecast

PHX → MDW · 1,441 miles · ~3h 23m

What to Expect

That Phoenix to Chicago Midway route certainly crosses a variety of terrain, making it interesting from a turbulence perspective. Departing Phoenix, you'll likely experience some bumps as you cross the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts, caused by thermal turbulence, which is just warm air rising. Then comes the Southern Rockies, where mountain wave turbulence can occur as air flows over the peaks. As you head over the Great Plains, there's a chance of clear-air turbulence (CAT), which can happen even in seemingly clear skies. Keep in mind pilots are always monitoring for this. Depending on the time of year, you might also cross through Tornado Alley, and the Mississippi Valley, both of which can bring convective turbulence. Near the end of the flight, over the Great Lakes, lake-effect turbulence sometimes occurs. Finally, you might experience frontal turbulence over the Ohio Valley as the flight descends. Pilots are trained to navigate these weather patterns every day.

The Phoenix to Chicago Midway route passes over the Southern Rockies in New Mexico and southern Colorado. While somewhat lower than the peaks to the north, these mountains still produce notable mountain wave turbulence, particularly when strong southwesterly winds aloft align perpendicular to the ridgeline.

Turbulence Factors on This Route

• Thermal Turbulence: Extreme desert heating generates strong thermal updrafts that cause low-to-mid-level turbulence, especially in summer afternoons.
• Mountain Wave Turbulence: The Southern Rockies produce lee waves when southwesterly upper-level winds flow across the terrain.
• Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT): The jet stream frequently meanders over the Great Plains, producing wind shear and clear-air turbulence at cruising altitudes.
• Severe Convective Turbulence: Tornado Alley supercells produce some of the most intense convective turbulence in North American aviation.

When Is This Route Bumpiest?

For the smoothest possible flight, aim for early fall or winter. The air tends to be more stable during these times, minimizing thermal and convective activity over the deserts and plains. Summer can be a bumpier time, especially over Tornado Alley and the Mississippi Valley, due to increased convective activity. Late winter and spring can also be turbulent, as the Rockies generate mountain waves, and the transition seasons stir up weather patterns in the Great Plains and Ohio Valley.

Tips for This Flight

Opt for a morning flight, as the air tends to be calmer earlier in the day before the ground heats up and creates thermals. Any turbulence you experience on this route will likely feel like driving on a bumpy road or encountering strong gusts of wind while cycling. To stay comfortable, choose a seat over the wing, as it tends to offer a slightly smoother ride. Remember to stay hydrated and practice deep, slow breathing. Know that the pilots are highly skilled professionals monitoring the conditions and that turbulence is a normal part of flying.

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Forecasts based on NOAA HRRR and GFS atmospheric model data.