Phoenix to Buffalo Turbulence Forecast

PHX → BUF · 1,908 miles · ~4h 19m

What to Expect

Your flight from Phoenix to Buffalo crosses a diverse range of geographic features, each with its own potential for turbulence. Initially, you'll fly over the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts, where thermal turbulence, caused by rising warm air, is common. As you continue northeast, you'll encounter the Southern Rockies, which can generate mountain wave turbulence when strong winds flow over them. The Great Plains present the risk of clear-air turbulence (CAT), which is often unpredictable but usually moderate. You may also pass over Tornado Alley, which can generate severe convective turbulence. Further along, the Mississippi Valley might present convective turbulence, while crossing the Great Lakes could lead to lake-effect turbulence, especially in cooler months. Finally, approaching Buffalo, the Ohio Valley may have frontal turbulence, and the Northern Appalachians can cause mechanical turbulence. Pilots are well-versed in navigating these conditions, and turbulence is a normal part of these routes.

The Phoenix to Buffalo route passes over the Southern Rockies in New Mexico and southern Colorado. While somewhat lower than the peaks to the north, these mountains still produce notable mountain wave turbulence, particularly when strong southwesterly winds aloft align perpendicular to the ridgeline.

Turbulence Factors on This Route

• Thermal Turbulence: Extreme desert heating generates strong thermal updrafts that cause low-to-mid-level turbulence, especially in summer afternoons.
• Mountain Wave Turbulence: The Southern Rockies produce lee waves when southwesterly upper-level winds flow across the terrain.
• Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT): The jet stream frequently meanders over the Great Plains, producing wind shear and clear-air turbulence at cruising altitudes.
• Severe Convective Turbulence: Tornado Alley supercells produce some of the most intense convective turbulence in North American aviation.

When Is This Route Bumpiest?

The most consistently smooth flights on this Phoenix to Buffalo route tend to be in winter and fall, with early fall being particularly calm. Summer can be fairly smooth, but the heating of the desert air creates thermal turbulence. The bumpier seasons are spring, late winter, early spring, early summer, late fall, and early winter, due to increased convective activity from temperature contrasts, stronger jet streams causing clear-air turbulence over the plains, and lake-effect instability over the Great Lakes.

Tips for This Flight

For the smoothest possible flight, try booking a morning departure; the atmosphere tends to be more stable earlier in the day. If you do experience turbulence, know that it often feels like driving on a bumpy road or encountering strong gusts of wind in a car. To stay comfortable, choose a seat over the wing; it's the most stable part of the plane, and make sure to stay hydrated throughout the flight. Remember, the flight crew is highly trained to handle all conditions, and they are there to ensure your safety and comfort.

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Forecasts based on NOAA HRRR and GFS atmospheric model data.