New Orleans to Phoenix Turbulence Forecast

MSY → PHX · 1,298 miles · ~3h 6m

What to Expect

The New Orleans to Phoenix flight can be a bit of an adventure, turbulence-wise, thanks to the varied terrain it crosses. Departing from the Gulf Coast and passing over the Mississippi Valley, you might encounter some convective turbulence, especially if it's a warm day. This is due to rising warm air creating unstable conditions. Then comes Tornado Alley, where, particularly during storm season, severe convective turbulence is possible. As you approach Phoenix, the Southern Rockies can introduce mountain wave turbulence, caused by wind flowing over the mountains. Finally, the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts can generate thermal turbulence as the hot ground heats the air above it. Remember, pilots are trained to handle these well-known weather patterns, constantly monitoring conditions and adjusting altitude or course to find the smoothest air possible.

The New Orleans to Phoenix route passes over the Southern Rockies in New Mexico and southern Colorado. While somewhat lower than the peaks to the north, these mountains still produce notable mountain wave turbulence, particularly when strong southwesterly winds aloft align perpendicular to the ridgeline.

Turbulence Factors on This Route

• Convective Turbulence: Warm Gulf moisture drives rapid thunderstorm development along the coast, creating intense updrafts and downdrafts.
• Mountain Wave Turbulence: The Southern Rockies produce lee waves when southwesterly upper-level winds flow across the terrain.
• Thermal Turbulence: Extreme desert heating generates strong thermal updrafts that cause low-to-mid-level turbulence, especially in summer afternoons.

When Is This Route Bumpiest?

For the smoothest possible ride from New Orleans to Phoenix, aim for the winter or early spring. The atmosphere is generally more stable during these months, reducing the chances of convective turbulence over the Gulf Coast and Mississippi Valley. Fall is another good bet. The bumpiest times to fly this route are typically late winter, spring, and summer, especially over Tornado Alley, when storm systems are more frequent and intense. Also, the Southern Rockies can produce mountain wave turbulence more often when the winds are stronger and the weather is more active. Convective turbulence can also be heightened in the summer months over the deserts, due to intensely heated ground.

Tips for This Flight

If you're concerned about turbulence, booking a morning flight from New Orleans is often your best bet, as the atmosphere tends to be calmer earlier in the day, before the ground heats up. Any turbulence you do encounter on this route will likely feel like driving on a slightly bumpy road, or perhaps a few stronger jolts similar to hitting a pothole. To stay comfortable, consider choosing a seat over the wing, as this area of the plane experiences less motion. Remember to stay hydrated, and practice deep, slow breathing to help you relax and stay grounded. The pilots are expertly trained to navigate any turbulence, and your safety is their top priority.

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Forecasts based on NOAA HRRR and GFS atmospheric model data.