Memphis to Ontario Turbulence Forecast

MEM → ONT · 1,569 miles · ~3h 38m

What to Expect

The Memphis to Ontario route, heading west for about 3 hours and 38 minutes, crosses a variety of terrains known for specific types of turbulence. Initially, you'll be over the Mississippi Valley, the Southeast Interior, and the Ozark Plateau, regions prone to convective turbulence caused by rising warm air, especially in warmer months. As you progress westward, you'll enter Tornado Alley, which can bring severe convective turbulence. Then, the flight path crosses the Great Plains, often affected by clear-air turbulence, or CAT, which is caused by wind shear at higher altitudes. Approaching Ontario, the Southern Rockies can generate mountain wave turbulence, and the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts might cause thermal turbulence from the hot ground. Pilots are very familiar with these patterns and use weather forecasting to plan routes that minimize discomfort.

The Memphis to Ontario route passes over the Southern Rockies in New Mexico and southern Colorado. While somewhat lower than the peaks to the north, these mountains still produce notable mountain wave turbulence, particularly when strong southwesterly winds aloft align perpendicular to the ridgeline.

Turbulence Factors on This Route

• Convective Turbulence: The Mississippi Valley is a breeding ground for squall lines and mesoscale convective systems that produce widespread turbulence.
• Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT): The jet stream frequently meanders over the Great Plains, producing wind shear and clear-air turbulence at cruising altitudes.
• Mountain Wave Turbulence: The Southern Rockies produce lee waves when southwesterly upper-level winds flow across the terrain.
• Thermal Turbulence: Extreme desert heating generates strong thermal updrafts that cause low-to-mid-level turbulence, especially in summer afternoons.

When Is This Route Bumpiest?

For the smoothest possible ride, aim for flights during the fall or late fall. Winter can also be relatively calm. Summer tends to be bumpier, particularly early summer, because convective turbulence is more common over the Mississippi Valley, Southeast Interior, and Ozark Plateau due to increased heat and humidity. Similarly, spring, late winter, and early spring can see more severe convective turbulence in Tornado Alley. Mountain wave turbulence near the Southern Rockies is more likely during winter months.

Tips for This Flight

If you're concerned about turbulence, booking a morning flight is often your best bet, as the air tends to be calmer earlier in the day before the ground heats up and creates thermal updrafts. Any turbulence you experience is most likely to feel like driving over a slightly bumpy or gravel road, or perhaps a sudden dip similar to going over a small bump in your car. Staying well-hydrated can help you feel more relaxed and lessen the effects of any minor motion sickness. Remember, the pilots are highly trained professionals who manage these conditions every day to ensure a safe flight.

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Forecasts based on NOAA HRRR and GFS atmospheric model data.