Buffalo to Phoenix Turbulence Forecast

BUF → PHX · 1,908 miles · ~4h 19m

What to Expect

The Buffalo to Phoenix route, heading west across the continent, is a real mixed bag when it comes to turbulence. Immediately after takeoff, you might encounter mechanical turbulence as the plane passes over the Northern Appalachians. Then, depending on the time of year, there’s the potential for lake-effect turbulence over the Great Lakes. As you progress over the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys, you could experience frontal or convective turbulence. Further west, crossing Tornado Alley and the Great Plains, the plane might encounter severe convective turbulence or clear-air turbulence. Later in the flight, expect possible mountain wave turbulence over the Southern Rockies. Finally, as you approach Phoenix, thermal turbulence is possible over the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts. Pilots are trained to anticipate and navigate these common weather patterns, using onboard radar and reports from other aircraft to find the smoothest possible path. These are all normal occurrences on this route, not emergencies.

The Buffalo to Phoenix route passes over the Southern Rockies in New Mexico and southern Colorado. While somewhat lower than the peaks to the north, these mountains still produce notable mountain wave turbulence, particularly when strong southwesterly winds aloft align perpendicular to the ridgeline.

Turbulence Factors on This Route

• Mechanical Turbulence: The Northern Appalachians generate low-level mechanical turbulence during strong post-frontal northwest winds.
• Lake-Effect Turbulence: The Great Lakes produce lake-effect convection and low-level wind shear from land-water temperature contrasts.
• Frontal Turbulence: The Ohio Valley is a preferred storm track where frontal boundaries and embedded convection create turbulence year-round.
• Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT): The jet stream frequently meanders over the Great Plains, producing wind shear and clear-air turbulence at cruising altitudes.

When Is This Route Bumpiest?

The summer and early fall months are usually your best bet for a smoother flight on this route. The air is generally more stable, reducing the likelihood of convective turbulence over the plains, and the lake effect and frontal turbulence are less pronounced. Winter, late fall, early winter, spring, early summer, early spring, and late winter tend to be the bumpiest times to fly this route. This is because the temperature differences create more instability in the atmosphere, leading to more mechanical, lake-effect, frontal, and convective turbulence as well as mountain wave turbulence over the Rockies.

Tips for This Flight

If you're concerned about turbulence, try to book a morning flight, as the air tends to be calmer earlier in the day; that might help you avoid some of the afternoon thermal or convective activity. Most turbulence on this route feels like driving on a bumpy road or hitting a few potholes. To feel more comfortable, choose a seat over the wing, where movement is less noticeable, and focus on your breathing; slow, deep breaths can help calm your nerves. Remember, the pilots are highly skilled at managing these conditions, and your safety is their top priority.

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Forecasts based on NOAA HRRR and GFS atmospheric model data.