Tucson to Chicago Midway Turbulence Forecast

TUS → MDW · 1,438 miles · ~3h 23m

What to Expect

Your flight from Tucson to Chicago Midway, heading northeast over 1438 miles, crosses a diverse range of terrains and weather patterns. Expect some bumps, but remember your pilots are highly trained to handle these common conditions. Initially, you'll be over the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts, where rising heat causes 'thermal turbulence'. As you continue, you'll cross the Southern Rockies, known for 'mountain wave turbulence' created by wind flowing over the peaks. Further along, over the Great Plains, expect possible 'clear-air turbulence', which can occur even in seemingly clear skies. Passing over Tornado Alley and the Mississippi Valley, your flight might encounter 'severe convective turbulence' and 'convective turbulence', caused by thunderstorms, especially during certain seasons. Approaching Chicago, you'll cross the Great Lakes, where 'lake-effect turbulence' can occur, and the Ohio Valley, known for 'frontal turbulence'.

The Tucson to Chicago Midway route passes over the Southern Rockies in New Mexico and southern Colorado. While somewhat lower than the peaks to the north, these mountains still produce notable mountain wave turbulence, particularly when strong southwesterly winds aloft align perpendicular to the ridgeline.

Turbulence Factors on This Route

• Thermal Turbulence: Extreme desert heating generates strong thermal updrafts that cause low-to-mid-level turbulence, especially in summer afternoons.
• Mountain Wave Turbulence: The Southern Rockies produce lee waves when southwesterly upper-level winds flow across the terrain.
• Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT): The jet stream frequently meanders over the Great Plains, producing wind shear and clear-air turbulence at cruising altitudes.
• Severe Convective Turbulence: Tornado Alley supercells produce some of the most intense convective turbulence in North American aviation.

When Is This Route Bumpiest?

For the smoothest possible ride on this route, aim for winter or fall. The air tends to be more stable during these seasons, reducing thermal and convective activity. Summer can be bumpier, especially over the deserts and Tornado Alley, due to increased heating and thunderstorm formation. Late winter, spring, early spring, early summer, late fall, and early winter also tend to be seasons with more turbulence, as weather patterns shift and temperature contrasts increase across the varied landscapes you'll be flying over.

Tips for This Flight

If possible, try to book a morning flight; the air is often calmer before the day heats up. Remember that any turbulence you experience on this route will likely feel like driving over a bumpy road or encountering strong gusts of wind on a highway, manageable and temporary. For extra comfort, choose a seat over the wing, where the ride is generally more stable, and focus on slow, deep breaths to stay relaxed. Know that the pilots are monitoring the conditions and are prepared for any changes.

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Forecasts based on NOAA HRRR and GFS atmospheric model data.