Maui to Raleigh-Durham Turbulence Forecast

OGG → RDU · 4,714 miles · ~9h 56m

What to Expect

Your flight from Maui (OGG) to Raleigh-Durham (RDU) covers a great distance, nearly 5000 miles, and crosses many different types of terrain, so it's likely you'll encounter some turbulence. The beginning of the flight over the open Pacific Ocean is prone to oceanic clear-air turbulence and convection, but pilots are skilled at navigating these conditions. Approaching the Pacific Coast, there's a chance of more clear-air turbulence. As you cross the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts, thermal turbulence may cause some bumps. Further inland, the Southern Rockies can create mountain wave turbulence, and the Great Plains might present clear-air turbulence again. Tornado Alley's severe convective turbulence is a risk, followed by convective turbulence over the Ozark Plateau and Mississippi Valley. Finally, you might feel frontal turbulence over the Ohio Valley and mechanical turbulence as you near your destination over the Southern Appalachians. Each of these types of turbulence is caused by well-understood weather patterns that pilots are trained to manage.

The Maui to Raleigh-Durham route passes over the Southern Rockies in New Mexico and southern Colorado. While somewhat lower than the peaks to the north, these mountains still produce notable mountain wave turbulence, particularly when strong southwesterly winds aloft align perpendicular to the ridgeline.

Turbulence Factors on This Route

• Oceanic Clear-Air Turbulence: Transoceanic jet stream crossings produce extended stretches of clear-air turbulence over the open Pacific.
• Oceanic Convection: Isolated thunderstorms over warm Pacific waters can develop away from radar coverage, catching flights off guard.
• Thermal Turbulence: Extreme desert heating generates strong thermal updrafts that cause low-to-mid-level turbulence, especially in summer afternoons.
• Mountain Wave Turbulence: The Southern Rockies produce lee waves when southwesterly upper-level winds flow across the terrain.

When Is This Route Bumpiest?

For the smoothest possible flight on this route, aim to travel during the spring, early summer, or summer months. These seasons tend to be calmer. Winter, late summer, and early spring can be a bit bumpier, largely due to stronger jet streams creating more clear-air turbulence over the Pacific and Great Plains, and increased convective activity in Tornado Alley. Late winter, spring, and early summer also see increased mountain wave turbulence as winds interact with the Rockies. Fall, especially early fall, is also typically smooth. Choosing a flight during the calmer seasons can make a noticeable difference in your overall experience.

Tips for This Flight

Whenever possible, book your flight for the morning, as daytime heating often increases thermal and convective turbulence. Any turbulence you encounter on this route is most likely to feel like driving on a slightly bumpy road, or perhaps a brief jolt like hitting a pothole. Staying well-hydrated can help you feel more comfortable during the flight, so be sure to drink plenty of water. Remember that the pilots and crew are highly experienced in handling these conditions, and they're there to ensure your safety and comfort.

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Forecasts based on NOAA HRRR and GFS atmospheric model data.