Madison to Burbank Turbulence Forecast

MSN → BUR · 1,673 miles · ~3h 51m

What to Expect

That Madison to Burbank route has some interesting air patterns, but nothing pilots aren't prepared for. You'll be heading west, and that means crossing a variety of terrains that each create their own little atmospheric quirks. First, you'll cross the Great Lakes, where lake-effect turbulence can cause some chop, especially if the air temperature differs greatly from the water temperature. As you continue, you'll encounter clear-air turbulence, or CAT, over the Upper Midwest and Great Plains; this type is often found at higher altitudes and can be caused by changes in wind speed or direction. Approaching the Rockies, mountain wave turbulence becomes a factor as air flows over the Front Range and Central Rockies. Finally, as you descend toward Burbank, thermal turbulence, caused by rising warm air over the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts, might give you a little jiggle.

Flights between Madison and Burbank pass along the Front Range, where the abrupt rise of the Colorado Rockies generates some of the strongest mountain wave turbulence in the continental U.S. Downdrafts east of the ridgeline can be intense, and rotor turbulence near the surface sometimes extends to cruising altitude during high-wind events.

Turbulence Factors on This Route

• Lake-Effect Turbulence: The Great Lakes produce lake-effect convection and low-level wind shear from land-water temperature contrasts.
• Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT): The Upper Midwest sits beneath frequent polar jet stream intrusions, producing clear-air turbulence at cruising altitudes.
• Mountain Wave Turbulence: Strong westerly winds over the Front Range create oscillating waves that can produce sustained moderate turbulence at jet cruise levels.
• Thermal Turbulence: Extreme desert heating generates strong thermal updrafts that cause low-to-mid-level turbulence, especially in summer afternoons.

When Is This Route Bumpiest?

For the smoothest flight from Madison to Burbank, aim for summer, early fall, or fall. The weather is generally more stable then, reducing the chances of lake-effect or mountain wave turbulence. Late fall, winter, early spring, and summer can be a bit bumpier. Winter and early spring see more significant temperature contrasts creating lake-effect turbulence. Also, during summer the deserts are at their hottest, leading to more thermal turbulence as you approach Burbank. Mountain wave turbulence is possible any time of year, but more common when there's strong wind flowing across the Rockies, which is more frequent outside of summer.

Tips for This Flight

If you are concerned about turbulence, try to book your flight for early in the day, as the atmosphere tends to be more stable in the morning. Any turbulence you do encounter on this route will likely feel like driving on a road with potholes or strong gusts of wind buffeting the car. Remember to stay hydrated before and during your flight, as dehydration can amplify feelings of anxiety; also, try focusing on slow, deep breaths to help calm your nerves. Remember that the flight crew is highly experienced in navigating these conditions, and you'll be in Burbank before you know it.

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Forecasts based on NOAA HRRR and GFS atmospheric model data.