Buffalo to Des Moines Turbulence Forecast

BUF → DSM · 769 miles · ~2h 2m

What to Expect

The Buffalo to Des Moines flight, heading west, offers a good example of how varied the air can be. You'll likely encounter a few different types of turbulence along the way. Initially, as you leave Buffalo, you might feel some bumps caused by the Northern Appalachians; this is called mechanical turbulence, when the wind flows over the mountains. As you pass over the Great Lakes, especially in cooler weather, lake-effect turbulence can cause some chop. Further west, over the Upper Midwest, clear-air turbulence (CAT) can occur, often unexpectedly but typically not severe. Finally, as you approach Des Moines over the Mississippi Valley, convective turbulence, caused by rising warm air, can create some light bumps, particularly in warmer months. Pilots are very familiar with these common conditions and constantly monitor and adjust the flight path for the smoothest ride possible.

Between Buffalo and Des Moines, the route crosses the Northern Appalachians from Pennsylvania through New England. While lower than western ranges, the Appalachians still produce mechanical turbulence and low-level wind shear, particularly when strong northwest winds follow cold frontal passages. Flights below 20,000 feet feel this most acutely.

Turbulence Factors on This Route

• Mechanical Turbulence: The Northern Appalachians generate low-level mechanical turbulence during strong post-frontal northwest winds.
• Lake-Effect Turbulence: The Great Lakes produce lake-effect convection and low-level wind shear from land-water temperature contrasts.
• Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT): The Upper Midwest sits beneath frequent polar jet stream intrusions, producing clear-air turbulence at cruising altitudes.

When Is This Route Bumpiest?

For the smoothest possible flight, aim for summer or early fall. The air tends to be more stable then, with less chance of lake-effect or convective turbulence. Winter, late fall, early winter, and spring, early summer can be bumpier. The cooler months bring lake-effect turbulence off the Great Lakes and increased mechanical turbulence over the Appalachians. In spring and early summer, convective turbulence is more common over the Mississippi Valley due to rising warm air.

Tips for This Flight

If possible, booking a morning flight often means less convective turbulence, which tends to build up later in the day. Any turbulence you might encounter on this route is typically light to moderate, similar to driving on a road with some potholes or small bumps. To stay comfortable, choose a seat over the wing, as it's the most stable part of the plane. Staying hydrated can also help you feel more relaxed. Remember to breathe deeply and focus on the fact that the pilots are highly skilled and trained to handle these conditions expertly, ensuring a safe and comfortable flight.

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Forecasts based on NOAA HRRR and GFS atmospheric model data.